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Can shortage pushes Indian beer and cola makers toward glass and PET ahead of Diwali
Our read
Indian beverage makers will preserve most Diwali-season volume by accelerating a shift from cans to glass and PET, but packaging inflation will push a less promotional, more margin-protective festive sales mix.
For operators
Secure glass and PET capacity early for Diwali, as a 20% rise in aluminium-can and shell costs makes packaging flexibility critical to protecting festive-season availability.
Watch
Timing and volume of aluminium-can imports clearing Indian ports.
The report,
West Asia conflict has disrupted aluminium-can imports to India, lifting costs and causing shortages. Cola and beer makers are shifting SKUs toward glass and PET, while suppliers and brewers secure packaging inventory early for the October-November festive demand period.
- Aluminium can prices, rise
- at least 20%
- Empty can-shell costs, rise
- up to 20%
- Aluminium price per tonne, rise of roughly 14-50%
- $3,500-$3,600 per tonne
- up roughly 14-50%
Reported figures
From the report. Source details below
| Aluminium can prices have risen by | at least 20% |
|---|---|
| Empty can-shell costs increased by | up to 20% |
| India's beverage-can market is forecast to double to $800,000 million by 2032 from | $400,000 last year |
| India's beverage-can segment grew 8.5% between 2019 and | 2023 |
Also in the report
- Aluminium prices climbed roughly 14-50% to $3,500-$3,600 per tonne
Why it matters to operators
The can shortage increases the strategic appeal of partnerships or acquisitions in domestic glass, PET preform, bottling and packaging-recycling capacity.
What to watch next
- Further movement in empty can-shell prices versus glass-bottle and PET-preform costs.
- Domestic glass-furnace utilization, bottle lead times, and availability of returnable bottles.
- PET resin and preform pricing, especially ahead of festive beverage production ramps.
- Evidence of changes in retail shelf mix from cans toward glass and PET.
- Beverage-company commentary on festive inventory, packaging constraints, price actions, and promotional intensity.
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- State-level excise or distribution restrictions that could amplify beer-format shortages.
Likely next moves
Our read of what comes next — analysis, not reported by the source.
- Reallocate aluminium cans toward premium, high-margin, and on-premise-oriented SKUs while shifting mass packs to returnable glass and PET.
- Lock in festive-period allocations with domestic glass, PET preform, closure, label, and secondary-packaging vendors.
- Increase production of refillable-glass formats where reverse-logistics networks are strongest, especially in high-volume state markets.
- Adjust promotional calendars, pack architecture, and distributor incentives to steer demand toward available formats.
- Evaluate selective price increases, reduced discounts, or smaller pack sizes to offset packaging-cost inflation without broadly damaging festive demand.
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- Build contingency inventory of bottles, preforms, crowns, closures, and cartons ahead of October-November dispatches.
The counter-case
The case against this reading — not reported by the source.
The packaging shift may be overstated: glass and PET are not frictionless substitutes for cans, especially for premium beer, on-the-go consumption, modern trade, and outlets constrained by returnable-bottle logistics. Higher glass freight, breakage, deposits, and PET recycling scrutiny could offset aluminium savings. A 20% increase in can-shell costs may be absorbed through procurement contracts, selective price hikes, smaller packs, or inventory drawdowns rather than causing broad packaging reform.
The source
Published
First seen